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Mesoscale Discussion 0473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/southern AR into northeast TX
and northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 131507Z - 131630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase over the next
couple hours across parts of central/southern AR into northeast TX
and northwest LA. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible
with storms into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold
front from southeast OK into northeast TX late continues to slowly
increase in intensity this morning as the downstream airmass
recovers from overnight storms. Three-hour dewpoint increases across
the region range from 2-4 deg F. This is aiding in airmass recovery
despite widespread cloudiness and modest boundary-layer heating,
especially as steepening midlevel lapse rates shift east into the
region. Effective shear greater than 40 kt will aid in increasingly
organized convection with bowing line segments/QLCS hazards
resulting in damaging wind potential with eastward extent. Wind
speeds increasing quickly with height with 40-60 kt southwesterly
flow between 850-700 mb will support not only damaging gusts, but
QLCS mesovortex formation within the line of convection, and a few
tornadoes also are possible. If any more discrete supercells are
able to develop ahead of the line, an increased tornado threat also
would acco*pany this activity. As the severe threat is expected to
continue increasing over the next couple of hours, a tornado watch
will likely be needed soon in/near the MCD area.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34019443 34809375 35389318 35439290 35409262 35239216
            34729175 33979162 33169203 32499246 32159291 32079340
            32069390 32159447 32329497 32689528 33029523 33639481
            34019443