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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the northern High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley
Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will dominate the southwestern U.S. into the central
Plains as weak mid-level troughing persists along the East Coast
tomorrow/Sunday. Along the northern periphery of the ridge, multiple
embedded mid-level impulses, acco*panied by a 50+ kt 500 mb jet
streak, will traverse the northern CONUS, promoting adequate wind
shear and lift along an instability axis for scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also
possible across portions of the northern High Plains as storms move
off the higher terrain amid a weakly buoyant but highly sheared
airmass. 

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
An MCS may be ongoing across ND at the start of the period. 8.5-9.5
C/km 850-500 mb lapse rates will precede the possible MCS (or
remnants thereof) promoting 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE and associated
potential for a continued large hail/severe wind threat through the
morning hours. The storms should weaken as they progress into
central MN by afternoon. The current expectation is that subsequent
diurnal heating behind the MCS remnants will boost instability (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
However, an 850-700 mb capping inversion will also be in place,
likely limiting convective coverage to a degree. Still, the presence
of a 35+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspread by 50+ kts of
west-northwesterly 500 mb flow will support sizeable, curved
hodographs and associated supercell potential. Any supercell that
can beco*e established will be capable of producing severe wind/hail
and tornadoes.  

...Northern High Plains into the central Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate across portions of
south-central MT by afternoon peak heating as a subtle mid-level
impulse grazes the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings depict a
relatively dry, well-mixed boundary layer overspread by 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates, resulting in tall-skinny CAPE profiles. While
buoyancy is expected to be relatively mediocre late tomorrow
afternoon (i.e. 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and while the vertical wind
profile will be unidirectional, 50 kts of mid-level flow will
contribute to 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, storm
organization is anticipated, with multicells and transient
supercells likely. Severe gusts are possible given the dry boundary
layer/steep low-level lapse rates. A couple bouts of severe hail are
also possible with any sustained supercell structure. 

A few high-based multicellular clusters may also develop off of the
higher terrain in eastern WY/CO and propagate into SD/NE during the
late afternoon/early evening. Though shear is weaker in this region
co*pared to points farther north, a couple of severe gusts may
acco*pany the stronger storms given the dry boundary layer.

..Squitieri.. 07/09/2022