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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA TO
NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tonight across Montana into North Dakota, with damaging winds and
large hail likely. Marginally severe storms may also occur from
parts of Texas into much of the Southeast States, with locally
damaging wind gusts a possibility.

...Montana/North Dakota to Minnesota...
An early morning MCS across central North Dakota will likely persist
east-southeastward with the potential for some stronger wind gusts,
but it will likely tend to weaken into midday as elevated inflow
diminishes. The remnants of this MCS could subsequently serve as a
focus for isolated robust redevelopment across eastern North Dakota
and/or northern Minnesota later this afternoon as the boundary layer
destabilizes.

Otherwise, another semi-active scenario is anticipated across the
region later today, including the possibility of a somewhat higher
severe potential across Montana/western North Dakota as co*pared to
yesterday. A wind/hail-related Enhanced Risk may be warranted in
subsequent Day 1 Outlook updates.

Late day/nighttime height falls along with a strengthening of
deep-layer westerlies are expected from Idaho/Montana into North
Dakota late this afternoon and tonight in advance of a consequential
shortwave trough emerging from the Pacific Northwest. Convection
will again initially develop over the mountains of northern Idaho
and southwest Montana. Forecast soundings suggest convective
initiation will occur by 21z-22z as convective temperatures are
breached.

These storms will evolve beneath a belt of 40-50kt of mid-level flow
that will encourage upscale growth of scattered supercells into
central Montana. Seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and
strong shear suggest one or more MCSs may evolve. This activity
should focus along a corridor from central Montana into west-central
North Dakota this evening into the overnight. Initial supercells may
produce very large hail, but with time, the severe wind threat may
increase as bow-type structures are likely to evolve with a maturing
MCS.

...Deep South to Carolinas/eastern Virginia...
On the eastern periphery of the Great Plains upper ridge, modestly
strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across much of the
Deep South and Southeast States. A southward-moving front, aided by
weak support aloft, along with pre-existing early day storm
clusters/outflows across the Tennessee Valley, should encourage at
scattered to numerous thunderstorms especially this afternoon within
a high PW environment. Some of these storms are likely to produce
localized microbursts capable of wind damage.

...Texas/ArkLaTex...
A very hot/humid air mass with afternoon temperatures in excess of
100F in many locations could support some strong/locally severe wind
gusts as thunderstorms develop this afternoon near/south of the
front across the region.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/09/2022