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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
slowly east-southeastward from the western Great Lakes to the
Atlantic coastal states. Ahead of the upper-level trough, a moist
airmass will destabilize each day, with scattered thunderstorms
forming each afternoon and evening from the southern and central
Appalachians to the Eastern Seaboard. An isolated severe threat will
be possible across much of the moist airmass, in areas that
destabilize the most. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively
weak from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, which
should keep the severe threat marginal each afternoon. 

Further to the north, a mid-level jet of 55 to 65 knots is forecast
to move eastward across the Northeast on Tuesday. The mid-level jet
should create strong deep-layer shear across parts of the
Appalachians from Pennsylvania into New York. Although there is some
uncertainty concerning instability, MLCAPE should beco*e strong
enough during the afternoon for severe storms. Wind damage and hail
would be the primary threats with the stronger storms that develop
and move off of the higher terrain.

...Friday/Day 7 to Saturday/Day 8...
A moist airmass will be in place across parts of the northern Plains
from Thursday into Friday. Large-scale subsidence, associated with
an upper-level ridge, should keep convective coverage very isolated.
 On Saturday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of
the north-central U.S. as an upper-level ridge develops further to
the west, into the northern High Plains. Convective coverage should
again be isolated on Saturday due to the upper-level ridge. In spite
of capping issues, cells that can initiate during the late
afternoon, could be associated with an isolated severe threat.