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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening mainly from Montana into North Dakota, with damaging wind
and hail threat. Marginally severe storms may also occur from parts
of Texas into much of the Southeast, with locally damaging wind
gusts.

...MT/ND...

Northern High Plains upper ridge is forecast to break down during
the latter half of the period as substantial mid-level height falls
spread across MT into ND ahead of a notable short-wave trough. The
upper feature of concern is currently located off the northern CA
Coast. Subsequent movement suggests the short wave will approach
southwest MT around 10/00z before ejecting to near the MT/ND border
by 10/12z.

Early this morning, a cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is
progressing across northeast MT and should top the ridge and begin
to propagate more southeast into central ND by sunrise. While this
activity could generate damaging winds into the early part of the
day1 period, this activity may gradually decrease during the later
morning. Remnants of the MCS could serve as the focus for isolated
robust development as boundary layer destabilizes due to surface
heating.

Of more concern will be convection that develops over the mountains
of northern ID/southwest MT. Forecast soundings suggest initiation
may occur by 22z as convective temperatures are breached. These
storms will evolve beneath a belt of 40-50kt of 500mb flow that will
encourage upscale growth of scattered supercells into central MT.
Seasonally strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and strong shear
suggest one or more MCSs may evolve ahead of the short wave. This
activity should focus along a corridor from central MT into
west-central ND. Initial supercells may produce very large hail, but
with time severe wind threat may increase as bow-type structures
possibly evolve with a maturing MCS.

...TX to the Southeast...

Northwesterly flow will deepen across much of the southern US east
of the Rockies Saturday as primary ridge axis holds over the
Rockies. Weak short-wave trough is forecast to extend from KY-AR at
18z which will align with a surface front draped across the TN
Valley into north-central TX. This boundary, aided by weak support
aloft, should encourage at least marginally severe convective
development within a high-PW environment from the lower MS Valley
into the Southeast. Very hot temperatures across TX will result in
higher cloud bases capable of generating gusty winds.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/09/2022