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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough, along with an associated mid-level jet max will
move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s F, will likely result in a corridor of moderate instability by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the
west of the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon. A
couple of organized convective clusters are forecast to move
eastward into the western Great Lakes region Sunday evening.

The mid-level jet max of 50 to 65 knots will move across the
upper-level Mississippi Valley, and be associated with strong
deep-layer shear. NAM forecast soundings in north-central Minnesota
at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with
0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This co*bined with 700 to 500 mb lapse
rates in the 8.0 to 8.5 C/km range should be favorable for
supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be
possible. As the low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon
and early evening, a tornado threat is also expected to develop
across parts of Minnesota. Cells that organize into line segments
will also have wind-damage potential. The threat should beco*e more
isolated by late evening, affecting parts of Wisconsin, northern
Iowa and northeastern Nebraska.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the northern
Rockies on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the
trough across parts of the northern Rockies during the afternoon.
This convection will spread eastward across parts of the northern
High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.  Model
forecasts suggest a corridor of instability will be in place across
southeast Montana and northern Wyoming. Forecast soundings by
00Z/Monday along this corridor have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55
knot range, with mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km. This
should be sufficient for hail with the stronger updrafts. Gusty
winds will also be possible. The threat should move eastward into
parts of the western Dakotas during the evening.

..Broyles.. 07/09/2022