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Mesoscale Discussion 1422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Areas affected...Western Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

Valid 090013Z - 090215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail, wind continues across WW 448,
and will likely persist for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue across central
to western Montana with several reports of severe hail (including
hail stones up to 2 inches) and 60+ mph winds noted within the past
1-2 hours. Most measures of convective intensity, including
lightning trends, cloud-top temperatures, and vertically integrated
ice, and reflectivity/velocity products continue to show robust
convection. 

While a few areas have been stabilized in the wake of ongoing
convection, the environment generally remains favorable for severe
weather. RAP mesoanalyses estimate MLCAPE values between 1000-1500
J/kg, effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots, and steep 0-3 km
lapse rates near 8-9 C/km. These estimates are supported by the TFX
00 UTC sounding as well as regional VWP observations. Elongated
hodographs are noted in such observations, and given the somewhat
isolated nature of the convection and new development noted upstream
across northern ID, implies that the potential for discrete
supercells capable of severe wind/hail will continue for at least
the next couple of hours. Storms will likely shift east out of the
watch later this evening, and a downstream watch will be considered
for portions of eastern MT.

..Moore.. 07/09/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45311442 46051452 46891427 48531305 49141216 49080982
            48570951 47780915 47230896 46510891 45910930 45751038
            45311149 45081239 44921311 44921377 45311442