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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe winds
and large hail are expected across parts of the northern Rockies and
northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of severe
storms may also develop this afternoon into evening across parts of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

...Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough/convectively reinforced MCV near the
Iowa/Missouri/Illinois border at daybreak will continue
east-southeastward today coincident with moderately enhanced (30-40
kt 500-700 mb) westerlies over the Ohio Valley. Some scattered
strong storms are ongoing across downstate portions of
Illinois/Indiana early today. The persistence of this convection
will help to reinforce a slow-moving front across the region. Storms
should further develop and intensify into this afternoon within an
unstable environment across southern Indiana into central/eastern
Kentucky and possibly southwest Ohio, with the moderately strong
flow potentially allowing for some weak/transient supercells aside
from a more prevalent tendency for organizing bands and linear
segments.

Damaging winds will likely be the most co*mon risk overall, but some
hail may occur as well especially with any storms exhibiting
supercellular characteristics, which is most probable across parts
of Kentucky and far southern Indiana. Additional severe storms may
form by mid/late afternoon through early evening along the
southeastward-advancing front across far southern Illinois/southeast
Missouri and western Kentucky, and possibly into Tennessee.

...Montana/Northern High Plains...
Broad mid-level height rises are expected across much of the central
and western CONUS, but a shortwave trough will eject across Montana
into southeast Saskatchewan/northwest North Dakota later today.
Strong surface heating will remove CINH by mid-afternoon and
scattered thunderstorms should once again develop across the
mountains of Idaho into southwest Montana by late afternoon.
Seasonally strong southwesterly mid-level flow will encourage this
activity to spread toward lower elevations where higher
moisture/buoyancy will provide an opportunity for upscale growth.
Forecast soundings suggest supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds can be expected, while an increasing low-level jet
across eastern Montana during the evening should support this
activity propagating toward western North Dakota after sunset.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...
A surface front will settle southward across the region through the
afternoon and early evening. Strong insolation and heating will
allow temperatures to soar above 100F near/south of the front, while
PW values will be around 2 inches particularly across parts of
Oklahoma/Arkansas. With large temperature/dew point spreads at the
surface, isolated severe downbursts may occur across the region this
afternoon through around sunset.

...Maine...
Isolated strong storms may occur primarily across northern Maine
along/ahead of a cold front that will surge southeastward across
northern New England this afternoon. Overall buoyancy nor mid-level
lapse rates will be robust, but steep low-level lapse rates and
strong unidirectional westerlies could yield gusty winds/small hail
with the most robust convection.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/08/2022