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Mesoscale Discussion 1415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Areas affected...northeast KS...northwest into northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 080434Z - 080630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during
the overnight.  Hail/wind are the threats with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
developing over the lower MO Valley.  A residual co*posite boundary
is draped farther south over east-central KS into west-central MO as
evident by streamline analysis.  The airmass over the lower MO
Valley is characterized as very moist (17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean
mixing ratio) according to the 00 UTC Topeka, KS raob. 
Non-negligible low-level warm air advection is implied by KEAX VAD
data.  Given the moderate buoyancy and modest low- to mid-level
flow, some potential for organized severe thunderstorms is beco*ing
increasingly apparent.  Based on the Topeka raob, it seems the upper
bound of hail potential will likely remain in the marginally severe
category (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) or less.  Isolated severe
gusts will be possible with the more water-loaded cores as storms
congeal and intermittently surge to the east-southeast.  It is
uncertain at this time whether the coverage of severe will warrant a
severe thunderstorm watch.  Convective trends will be monitored.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...to*...

LAT...LON   39779702 40329549 40099324 39739269 39429275 39109301
            39129681 39419717 39779702