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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND FROM MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging
wind gusts should be the main threats. A corridor of severe storms
may also develop during the day across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley...

Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upco*ing
day1 period as upper ridging will hold across the Rockies/High
Plains into the lower MS Valley. This feature will ensure
northwesterly mean flow across the upper Midwest into the
southeastern States. One notable short-wave trough has topped the
ridge and is progressing toward the lower MO Valley early this
morning. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved over
northwest MO early this morning and this activity could grow upscale
through sunrise. The digging short wave should assist this activity
as it spreads toward IL by the start of the period. While deep-layer
wind is not particularly strong, 30kt 500mb flow extends across
northern MO into central IN. This will be more than adequate for the
maintenance of thunderstorm clusters within a warm-advection regime.
Storms will be ongoing at the start of the period across northeast
MO into central IL. As a result, strongest boundary-layer heating is
forecast across southern IL into central KY and this should be the
axis of the main corridor for renewed, robust updrafts by mid day.
Damaging winds are the primary risk with new daytime development.

...MT/Northern High Plains...

Broad mid-level height rises are forecast Friday across much of the
central and western US. Latest model guidance suggests an early-day
short-wave trough will eject across MT into southeast SK/northwest
ND. While a few storms may be noted ahead of this feature, the
primary concern for severe thunderstorms across MT and the northern
High Plains will be later in the day. Strong surface heating will
remove CINH by mid afternoon and scattered thunderstorms should once
again develop across the mountains of ID into southwest MT by late
afternoon. Seasonally strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
encourage this activity to spread toward lower elevations where
higher moisture/buoyancy will provide an opportunity for upscale
growth. Forecast soundings suggest supercells are possible and an
increasing LLJ across eastern MT during the evening should support
this activity propagating toward western ND after sunset.

...Elsewhere...

Surface front will sag south across KS into OK/TX Panhandle during
the afternoon. Strong surface heating will allow temperatures to
soar above 100F ahead of this boundary. Forecast soundings across
northeast OK into northern AR exhibit PW values around 2 inches.
With large temperature/dew point spreads at the surface, isolated
severe downbursts appear likely given the high PW values.

Isolated strong storms are also possible across northern ME
along/ahead of a cold front that should surge southeast across
northern New England Friday afternoon. Surface temperatures should
warm quickly and this will allow convective temperatures to be
breached fairly early in the period. Gusty winds are the primary
risk with the most robust convection.

..Darrow/Moore.. 07/08/2022