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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the western CONUS
on Day 4/Saturday. This trough should reach the southern/central
High Plains by early Day 5/Sunday. Rich low-level moisture should be
present both days across parts of the southern Plains into the lower
MS Valley to the south of a front and east of a dryline. If
thunderstorms form in these areas either afternoon, they could pose
an isolated severe threat given enhanced mid-level flow supporting
moderate to strong deep-layer shear. However, too much uncertainty
presently exists regarding overall thunderstorm coverage and
placement to delineate a 15% severe area at this time. The upper
trough should continue advancing eastward over the central/eastern
CONUS on Day 6/Monday. Depending on whether sufficient low-level
moisture return can occur, some severe risk may develop over parts
of the Southeast. Even so, confidence remains low that the low-level
moisture will return far enough north for robust convection to occur
over land. Models beco*e increasingly divergent with their solutions
regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern from Day 7/Tuesday
onward, suggesting predictability remains low.