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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging
wind gusts should be the main threats.

...Northern Rockies/Plains...
An upper ridge will remain prominent across much of the Southwest,
Rockies, Plains and central Canada on Friday. Around 35-45 kt of
mid-level southwesterly flow preceding an upper trough over the West
Coast is forecast to overspread parts of the northern Rockies and
adjacent northern Plains of MT through the period. A moist low-level
airmass will likely be present along/east of a surface trough
extending across the northern High Plains. At least moderate
instability should once again develop across much of MT and vicinity
as daytime heating occurs. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also
be present over the warm sector.

Initially high-based convection that forms over the northern Rockies
Friday afternoon will spread generally east-northeastward across MT
through Friday night. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for
some supercell structures. Both large hail and severe wind gusts may
occur with this convection. Some upscale growth into one or more
bowing clusters may also occur Friday evening/night with eastward
extent into MT as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. Overall
coverage of thunderstorms beco*es more uncertain with eastward
extent into ND. But, an isolated severe threat should exist owing to
a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and Southeast...
Modest enhancement to the mid-level west-northwesterly flow should
be present Friday from parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest into the
OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Carolinas. A moist low-level
airmass, with dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, will likely
be present across these regions along/south of a weak front. Diurnal
heating of this airmass should aid the development of moderate to
locally strong instability by Friday afternoon. The fairly modest
deep-layer shear should limit updraft organization to some extent.
Still, some clustering of convection should occur, and multicells
capable of producing mainly isolated damaging winds should spread
east-southeastward across these regions through Friday evening.

Some guidance suggests that an MCV and remnant convection will be
present across parts of the mid MS Valley at the start of the period
Friday morning. If it holds together, this activity may pose an
isolated severe threat through the morning hours as it spreads
eastward into the Midwest and lower OH Valley. High-resolution
guidance suggests varying solutions regarding the track/evolution of
this MCV and related potential for the redevelopment of strong to
severe thunderstorms across these areas Friday afternoon. Have
expanded the Marginal Risk to account for this uncertainty, and
greater severe wind probabilities may be needed if a more focused
corridor of MCS damaging wind potential beco*es apparent.

...Central High Plains...
High-based convection that forms Friday afternoon over parts of the
central Rockies should spread into the adjacent High Plains by early
Friday evening. Modest low-level upslope flow should also occur
through the day. Even with mid-level winds and related deep-layer
shear remaining modest, weak to moderate instability and steepened
low-level lapse rates should aid in robust updrafts being maintained
as convection spreads generally east-southeastward. Isolated severe
wind gusts and hail may occur with the strongest updrafts.

...Maine...
Strong mid-level westerly flow associated with an upper trough over
eastern Canada will be present across ME on Friday. Although
low-level moisture is forecast to remain fairly limited, modest
heating and weak instability may develop in a narrow corridor by
Friday afternoon. A couple of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms capable of producing occasional hail/wind may develop
in this regime.

..Gleason.. 07/07/2022