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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and New England
on Thursday. Marginally severe hail also appears possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper cyclone centered over the Upper Midwest Thursday
morning is forecast to move slowly northeastward into Canada while
occluding. Strong mid-level southwesterly winds preceding this
cyclone will overspread much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
through the day, with somewhat weaker winds aloft with southward
extent across the Southeast. A cold front will sweep eastward over
much of the East Coast states by Thursday evening, while making
slower southeastward progress across the Carolinas and GA/AL.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be in progress across
southern portions of LA/MS/AL at the start of the period Thursday
morning along/ahead of the cold front. This activity should weaken
through the morning hours, but additional convection may form
Thursday afternoon ahead of the front over parts of the FL Panhandle
into GA and the Carolinas as diurnal heating of the moist low-level
airmass occurs. Lapse rates aloft are not forecast to be
particularly steep, but around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should still
develop. Deep-layer shear looks to be fairly marginal around 25-35
kt. Some organization may occur with any thunderstorms that develop,
and isolated strong to damaging winds and marginally severe hail
both appear possible. Convection should spread eastward across these
areas through the afternoon, with some guidance suggesting a
lingering severe threat may persist over the eastern Carolinas
Thursday evening/night before the cold front moves offshore.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
40-50+ kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of
the Mid-Atlantic into New England on Thursday. While low-level
moisture should remain limited across these regions, surface
dewpoints mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s should be present ahead
of the cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should foster
around 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE, with poor mid-level lapse rates
likely inhibiting greater instability. Deep-layer shear should
increase to around 35-40 kt as the stronger mid-level winds
overspread the warm sector, which should prove favorable for updraft
organization. But, low-level convergence along the front will remain
weak, as winds around 850 mb are forecast to veer to a general
westerly co*ponent by early Thursday afternoon. This weak
convergence may tend to limit overall thunderstorm coverage to some
extent, with most guidance suggesting better chances for convection
across eastern PA into southern NY and parts of New England. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to gradually
develop along the front by Thursday afternoon and move quickly
eastward. With mainly a linear/cluster mode expected, isolated
strong to damaging winds should be the primary severe threat.

..Gleason.. 04/13/2022