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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday
across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains, and from the lower Ohio
Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Damaging winds
and large hail should be the main threats.

...Northern Rockies/Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the northern Rockies
and Plains on Thursday. Even with generally rising mid-level heights
through the period, weak perturbations aloft moving northeastward
should encourage convective development over the higher terrain of
the northern Rockies by Thursday afternoon. With weak
east-southeasterly low-level flow forecast to persist, a modestly
moist low-level airmass should remain across the adjacent High
Plains. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates should aid in the development of weak to
moderate instability by late Thursday afternoon. Strong veering of
the wind profile with height through mid levels, and modestly
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds, will likely result in
around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Some updraft organization
is expected as convection spreads from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains of central/eastern MT through Thursday evening. A
mix of multicells and supercells appears possible, with a threat for
both severe/damaging winds and large hail.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...
Based on scattered to numerous thunderstorms that are forecast to
occur in the Day 1 period across these regions, adjustments have
been made to the Slight Risk to better account for severe/damaging
wind potential on Thursday. Fairly weak west-northwesterly mid-level
winds should be present across the OH Valley into the central
Appalachians, southern Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. These modest
winds aloft should limit deep-layer shear to some extent. However,
robust diurnal heating appears likely across much of these regions
along/south of a weak front. As low-level lapse rates steepen and
instability increases with daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms
should develop. Some of this convection should beco*e loosely
organized, with multicell clusters being the dominant storm mode
given the weak effective bulk shear. Isolated to scattered damaging
winds should be the main severe threat with this activity as it
spreads generally east-southeastward through Thursday evening. Most
guidance suggests that ongoing convection Thursday morning across
the mid MS Valley may persist and restrengthen as it moves into
parts of the lower OH Valley and Southeast Thursday afternoon. A
focused zone of potentially damaging winds may occur with this small
bowing cluster as it moves across these regions.

...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley...
Modest low-level post-frontal upslope flow should occur across the
central High Plains on Thursday. As convection develops over the
higher terrain of the central Rockies and spreads eastward into the
adjacent High Plains, it may pose an isolated threat for severe wind
gusts and hail. Modest deep-layer shear should keep the overall
severe threat fairly isolated. Additional isolated strong to severe
convection may develop Thursday afternoon along/near a front across
KS to the mid MS Valley. Nebulous large-scale ascent renders low
confidence in overall thunderstorm coverage across these areas.

..Gleason.. 07/06/2022