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Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052331Z - 060100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts and hail are possible this evening
from northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing in the vicinity of a
southward-sagging cold front over northeast IN/northwest OH. The
airmass downstream from this activity is extremely unstable. Surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates
is supporting MLCAPE values around 4000+ J/kg. Westerly flow in the
low/mid levels is generally weak, but increases with height to
around 35-45 kt above 5 km, resulting in enough speed shear to
produce effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt. Thunderstorm
clusters with transient supercell characteristics will develop
south/southeast through the evening, with weak low-level flow and
DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg favoring sporadic strong gusts
and marginal hail. Large-scale forcing for ascent will remain weak,
and modest shear amid increasing boundary inhibition with loss of
daytime heating should limit coverage/longevity of severe potential.
As such, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41108607 41738598 41828561 41788499 41738425 41478389
            40928368 40488373 40338384 40158431 40208500 40488573
            40958600 41108607