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Mesoscale Discussion 1387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Iowa into far southern
Wisconsin and extreme northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 052329Z - 060100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 440, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat.
Damaging winds are expected to beco*e the main concern later this
evening with the approach of a strong bow-echo MCS.

DISCUSSION...Scattered multicellular/supercell structures have
developed along the northern periphery of a baroclinic zone,
characterized by extreme instability. So far, mainly marginal severe
hail has been reported with these storms. Nonetheless, the very
strong buoyancy available to these storms is driven by mid to upper
70s F dewpoints overspread by steep tropospheric lapse rates. As
such, damaging gusts may acco*pany the stronger storm cores in
addition to large hail. In addition, a derecho-producing MCS is in
progress across central IA and is poised to enter Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 440 in the next few hours. While it is unclear
how robust the derecho-MCS will be relative to its current/earlier
state, the remaining strong buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer
should support an organized severe wind threat this evening.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43499269 43589109 43298940 42818842 42128754 41618751
            41388800 41508881 41768983 42149076 42439142 42809211
            42959248 43499269