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Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...far southern Minnesota into central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...438...

Valid 052209Z - 052315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437, 438
continues.

SUMMARY...A derecho is expected to maintain some structure while
traversing the MN/IA border for the next couple of hours, with
severe winds still a concern. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a
tornado also remain possible with storms preceding the derecho.

DISCUSSION...A derecho-producing MCS, with a considerable history of
producing significant severe winds, continues to progress along the
IA/MN border. This MCS has a well-defined mesovortex along the
northern periphery of a bow echo, where severe winds (some
significant) continue to be reported. It is uncertain how long the
MCS will maintain a classic bow-echo structure since the bow is
beginning to interact with preceding storms. Though synoptic forcing
remains quite weak, a corridor of extreme buoyancy resides ahead of
the MCS, overspread by 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, with the
bulk shear vectors aligned roughly normal to the MCS bow. Current
FSD radar shows very strong outbound velocity signatures with the
bow, so damaging gusts (perhaps some significant) remain possible
over the next 1-3 hours. Even if the derecho-MCS structure is
disrupted by the preceding convection, the current CAPE/shear
parameter space supports continued severe potential with any mature
storms through the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42229674 42659609 43079558 43379540 43709519 43969457
            44049349 43879256 43399156 43159142 42849136 42489157
            42149201 41879274 41829410 41789498 41789584 42229674