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Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Wyoming...South Dakota...Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 052137Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to develop early
this evening across parts of northern Wyoming, southwest South
Dakota and northwest Nebraska. Large hail and wind damage will be
the primary threats. Watch issuance could be needed across parts of
the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
ridge in the northern Plains with southwest mid-level flow
throughout the West. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
from western Montana into Wyoming. At the surface, an
northwest-to-southeast oriented outflow boundary is analyzed across
northern and eastern Wyoming. MLCAPE near this outflow boundary is
estimated to be in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range by the RAP. Forecast
soundings across northern and eastern Wyoming this evening have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, which should be favorable for
severe storms. Isolated supercells will have a large hail threat.
Wind damage may also occur with the stronger downdrafts. The most
favorable corridor for severe should from far eastern South Dakota
into far northwest Nebraska, where instability is currently the
strongest.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41550166 41450205 41470277 41630339 41970396 42420473
            42850538 43370648 43660724 43960783 44350811 44610789
            44750710 44780634 44620523 44110294 43340095 42730036
            42030053 41550166