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Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 052032Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of northern Iowa into southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sufficient shear and substantial
buoyancy will promote storms capable of damaging winds and large
hail.

DISCUSSION...Moisture has pooled along a stationary boundary across
parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F
have allowed substantial buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop
along and south of the boundary. Flow aloft remains strong enough
for effective shear value of 35-45 kts. Given this environment,
organized storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are
possible. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus towers
in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with greater agitation
also noted in northern Iowa. Guidance has been relatively consistent
with storms firing along the boundary. in terms of timing,
observations would suggest that storms are most likely within the
next 1-2 hours in Wisconsin/Illinois. However, additional
development is possible into northern Iowa ahead of the intense MCS
now in southeast South Dakota. Even without frontal development in
Iowa, the MCS is likely to persist and impact the region. These
areas will likely need a watch this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42409200 42409288 42499390 42769473 43549442 43669297
            43559096 42858829 42058738 41568752 41598853 42179037
            42409200