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Mesoscale Discussion 1381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...southeastern South Dakota into northeastern
Iowa...adjacent southern Minnesota...northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...437...

Valid 051944Z - 052145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436, 437
continues.

SUMMARY...Strongest storms appear likely to overspread the Sioux
Falls SD area into the Spencer and Storm Lake IA vicinities through
5-6 PM CDT, acco*panied by locally intense gusts up to 60-80 kts,
and perhaps wind driven hail.

DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues, with further cooling of
coldest cloud tops, acco*panied by a narrow band of very heavy rain,
hail and frequent lightning flash rates.  Near the northern flank of
this band, a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation has beco*e
a bit better defined, with strengthening rear inflow (up to 70-80
kt) to its southwest through south.  This appears aligned with a
narrow corridor of large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg,
which seems likely to maintain the most intense convection for the
next several hours.  This likely will include areas across/east of
Sioux Falls SD into the Storm Lake/Spencer IA vicinity by 22-23Z,
where wind driven hail may contribute to potential damage.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43859725 43789564 43649420 42669475 42679575 43069747
            43479722 43859725