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Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Virginia into southern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051736Z - 051930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce wind damage this afternoon. Storm
coverage, particularly for central/southeast Virginia, may remain
isolated. Trends will continue to be monitored for a possible watch
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As the airmass in eastern Virginia and southern
Maryland slowly destabilizes ahead of an MCV centered in
south-central Pennsylvania, a few thunderstorms have intensified
near the Virginia Tidewater. Given the timing of the MCV and
antecedent cloud cover, MLCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg near this
activity. However, effective shear is 40-45 kts. There is a narrow
window for storms to intensify before reaching more stable air near
the coast.

Farther southwest into central Virginia, greater buoyancy exists as
temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F. Though farther removed
from the MCV wind field, effective shear is still 30-35 kts. It is
possible that storms will develop as outflow to the northwest
reaches this airmass. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.

The need for a watch is uncertain given the limited area that may be
impacted as well as questions regarding storm coverage. Trends will
be monitored.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36867784 36727882 36887935 37507944 37687912 38557745
            38817705 38837688 38737642 38197624 37497674 36867784