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Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...Far southwestern Ohio...Eastern Kentucky into
southwestern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051715Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms in eastern Kentucky into southwest Virginia will
continue to move into a increasingly buoyant, but decreasingly
sheared, airmass this afternoon. Wind damage will be possible with
water-loaded downdrafts. A watch is possible should convective
trends in cold-pool organization warrant.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from an MCS that moved through Ohio overnight
yesterday continues to push southward into the southern Appalachians
region. A very moist airmass (70+ F dewpoints) has warmed into the
low 90s in eastern Kentucky with slightly lower temperatures to the
east. With time, continued heating should support an increase in
damaging wind potential. A secondary outflow push is also evident on
regional MRMS radar. This could produce an increase in storm
coverage/intensity as it interacts with storms farther to the south.
However, overall organization is not expected to be high given the
southward movement away from greater deep-layer shear. A watch is
possible should an area of greater cold-pool organization develop
this afternoon. Trends will be monitored.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   36608158 37228439 37518490 37738520 38498512 39308480
            39468436 39298400 38798327 38208185 38128092 38198017
            38127976 37837949 37517945 37048018 36648152 36608158