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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
MONTANA...AND FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of the
northern/central Rockies/Plains into from the Midwest/Ohio Valley
into the Carolinas. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main
threats.

...MT into the western Dakotas...
Height rises will occur over the region during the day, with ridge
axis over central MT/WY at 00Z. At the surface, a ridge will extend
from the Upper Great Lakes into the northern Plains, resulting in
weak east/southeast surface winds. The air mass will remain
sufficiently moist with dewpoints near 60 F over eastern MT,
resulting in strong instability when co*bined with heating and steep
lapse rates aloft.

Storms are expected to form after 21Z over west-central MT, moving
into northern MT by late evening. Additional diurnal activity is
likely over northern/eastern WY where the moist air mass will beco*e
uncapped and where weak upslope will contribute to ascent. Low-level
flow will be weak, but better mid and high level winds may yield
some organization potential with outflow-driven clusters or lines
producing damaging wind and hail.

...IN/OH/KY into the Carolinas...
A modest northwest flow regime will exist across the region with mid
and high-level winds around 30 kt. At the surface, an east-west
oriented cold front will sink south across IL/IN/OH with high
pressure over the Upper Great Lakes. Farther east, a weak surface
trough will redevelop from eastern VA into the central Carolinas.
Both of these features will provide low-level convergence and lift
for a diurnal thunderstorm threat. 

A few lingering storms are possible Wednesday morning from northern
IL into OH, as MLCAPE will be strong and the moist air mass
uncapped. This activity could produce a few strong wind gusts or
small hail early. The primary risk will develop after 18Z when
heating contributes to stronger instability. One or more clusters of
southeastward-moving storms will be possible, producing severe gusts
and isolated hail.

Farther east, storms should be most numerous after 18Z from northern
GA into the Carolinas, with moist and tall CAPE profiles favoring
locally severe downbursts. Strong heating will also favor vigorous
pulsing updrafts capable of hail. Storm coverage from WV into VA is
more questionable as some models indicate a bit of drying from the
northwest, also reflected in lower hr** thunder probabilities.
Isolated strong wind gusts appear most probable over these areas.

..Jewell.. 07/05/2022