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Mesoscale Discussion 1376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...northern and central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

Valid 051414Z - 051545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
continues.

SUMMARY...An intense cluster of thunderstorms may organize and
strengthen further through 11 AM-1 PM CDT, with increasing potential
to produce severe wind gusts while spreading eastward and
southeastward toward the Aberdeen and Pierre vicinities.  A new
severe weather watch likely will be needed to the east and south of
WW 435 within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of intense thunderstorms, including a few
cells likely still producing severe hail, persists, with a general
east-southeastward propagation.  Rapid Refresh suggests that
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection supporting initial activity
may weaken during the next few hours, but the convection has
generated a substantive surface cold pool which is advancing
southward into an increasingly moist and destabilizing
boundary-layer, along and north of the Interstate 90 corridor. 
Although mid-level inhibition beneath the plume of very warm
elevated mixed-layer air also beco*es generally stronger with
southward extent, lift along the leading edge of the cold pool,
coupled with erosion of inhibition due to continued surface heating,
may be strong enough to maintain or increase intense convection. 

Given CAPE up to 3000 J/kg in the more moist air, modest deep layer
westerly (around 20 kt) mean flow appears sufficiently sheared to
contribute to an increasingly well organized cluster of storms
acco*panied by increasing risk for severe wind gusts, in addition to
large hail.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   45890289 45870084 45299749 43820003 44980335 45890289