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Mesoscale Discussion 1372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433...

Valid 050656Z - 050900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues in/near WW 433 over portions
of southern and eastern Montana.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows locally strong storms moving
across eastern Montana -- within WW 433, while other strong storms
-- including a rotating cell now over northeastern Sweet Grass
county -- continue to the west of the current watch.

A modest (25 to 30 kt) easterly low-level jet is indicated across
the region, providing a zone of weak warm advection which -- in
tandem with ascent associated with the southeastern British Columbia
upper cyclone -- suggests that storms will persist over the next
several hours.  While deep-layer flow -- veering and increasing with
height -- is resulting in shear sufficient for organized storms,
CAPE will remain a limiting factor -- particularly from east-central
Montana into western North Dakota.  However, an axis of greater (500
to 1500 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE across south-central and southeastern
Montana suggests that isolated risk for locally damaging wind gusts
and hail in excess of 1" in diameter will continue.

..Goss.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46000932 47160812 47450514 46900406 45210557 45380842
            46000932