Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADJACENT PARTS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...IOWA...AND MINNESOTA; AND IN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening in a broad area from parts of the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.  Severe gusts and
large hail are the main threats.  The most intense gusts and very
large hail are expected across eastern Montana into the middle
Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge centered over the Mid South will enco*pass much of
the Plains and Southeast, while an upper trough pivots east across
the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity.  Several mid-level
disturbances, some of which are of convective origin, are forecast
to migrate through the crest of the ridge from the central/northern
Rockies into the central/northern Plains. In the low levels, a cold
front is forecast to push southeastward through the Great Lakes and
into parts of the central Appalachians/Northeast late. 
Predictability concerns are paramount for this forecast and
storm-scale effects related in part to storm activity prior to the
start of the day 1 outlook (12z today) will likely have
reverberating effects on the evolution/placement and potential
severe corridors later today.

...SD/NE/IA/MN Vicinity...
A cluster of elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across
parts of the Dakotas early this morning.  This activity could pose a
threat for hail through the morning as it drifts east/southeast. By
midday into early afternoon, these storms may re-intensify, or new
convection may develop, within increasing moisture along a
baroclinic zone along the NE/SD border ahead of the surface front.
Rich low-level moisture sampled by Monday evening raobs indicate
upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints and heating will contribute
to a very unstable airmass. Although deep-layer shear will likely be
marginal, the magnitude of moisture/buoyancy will favor upscale
growth into one or more severe clusters during the
afternoon/evening.  Severe gusts, some possibly significant, could
yield swaths of wind damage before this activity weakens during the
evening.

...Eastern MT into the Western Dakotas Vicinity...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow will bring increasing
low-level moisture westward through the afternoon. As higher-based
storms encounter higher-quality moisture and instability across
eastern MT, potential for significant severe thunderstorms will
increase. Supercell wind profiles are forecast, with very steep mid
and low-level lapse rates across the region. Very large hail, and
intense damaging wind gusts are possible. While convection is
expected to mostly be discrete, some bowing segments are possible
across far eastern MT into the western Dakotas by evening. 

...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic...
It seems increasingly probable that a linear cluster of storms will
be ongoing across parts of the southern Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley
early this morning.  A seasonally moist and destabilizing airmass
will reside downstream from this activity across the Mid-Atlantic
states.  A rejuvenation of storms during the morning into the midday
or development on the leading outflow are plausible scenarios.  The
potential squall line would move southeast across the central
Appalachians and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon
into the early evening.  Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are
possible in proximity to the stronger cores and surges in the band
of storms.  This activity may move as far southeast as southern VA
and NC during the evening with a risk for wind damage before
weakening.  Farther west over the OH Valley, clusters of storms may
yield isolated to widely scattered wind damage.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/05/2022