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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from
parts of the northern/central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, Ohio
Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Damaging winds and large hail
should be the main threats.

...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Substantial convective overturning will likely have occurred over
parts of these regions from prior (Day 1) thunderstorms. Still, most
guidance suggests that a convectively enhanced, low-amplitude
shortwave trough should be present over portions of the Midwest at
the start of the period Wednesday morning. As this feature spreads
east-southeastward across the OH Valley through the day, renewed
thunderstorm development should occur. A moist low-level airmass
will likely be present along/south of a front, and moderate to
locally strong instability should develop as diurnal heating occurs.
Mid-level west-northwesterly flow is not forecast to be overly
strong across these regions, but sufficient deep-layer shear is
forecast to support some thunderstorm organization.

Loosely organized multicell clusters/small bows should be the
dominant convective mode. One or more of these clusters should
develop and spread east-southeastward across parts of the Midwest
into the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas through Wednesday
evening. Scattered damaging winds will likely the main threat with
this activity, but some hail may also occur with the strongest
cores. Details on convective evolution remain somewhat unclear, but
it does appear that an effective boundary related to prior
convection should shunt greater low-level moisture and related
instability southward across IA into northern MO. Have adjusted
severe probabilities across this region to account for latest trends
in guidance showing less potential for robust thunderstorms across
much of IA.

...Northern/Central Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
With a large-scale upper ridge remaining over much of the Rockies
and adjacent Plains on Wednesday, convective initiation will likely
be tied to the higher terrain initially. Multiple weak mid-level
perturbations moving along the periphery of the upper ridge should
aid in convective development through the afternoon. Weak to
moderate instability is forecast to be in place across the
northern/central High Plains as diurnal heating of a modestly moist
low-level airmass occurs. Once the initially high-based
thunderstorms encounter this greater low-level moisture, they should
strengthen. Effective bulk shear generally ranging from 25-40 kt
should support a mix of multicells and supercells as convection
spreads east-northeastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Both
large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.

Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear decrease with southward
extent into the central High Plains. But, a deeply mixed boundary
layer and rather strong diurnal heating may support an isolated
threat for strong to severe wind gusts with any convective
downdrafts across this region.

..Gleason.. 07/05/2022