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Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...Southwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 050449Z - 050715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat is expected to continue
across eastern Montana, and could affect parts of southwest North
Dakota over the next few hours.  Weather watch issuance may be
needed to the east of the ongoing watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Glasgow shows a
severe storm in eastern Montana, with other isolated strong storms
further to the west. These cells are located along the northern edge
of an east-to-west axis of instability. The small cluster of storms
is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough in east-central
Montana, evident on water vapor imagery. As this feature moves
eastward, the storms should remain intact moving into southwest
North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings in southwest North Dakota have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots, suggesting that the storms should
remain organized. Although storm rotation will be possible, the
cells may tend to form into short line segments. Wind damage would
be possible along the leading edge of the lines. And hail could
acco*pany the stronger cores.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47060528 46710522 46520492 46400446 46380392 46380303
            46400212 46440156 46590097 46960061 47240066 47470113
            47500229 47450477 47060528