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Mesoscale Discussion 1366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Iowa into far southern
Wisconsin...far northern Illinois and southwestern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432...

Valid 050247Z - 050415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 432. Damaging gusts are the main threat, especially with
merging storms. Large is also possible and a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection and the northward passage of a 500
mb vort max (in northeastern WI) has allowed for the initiation and
sustenance of multiple supercells along an east-west line from far
eastern IA, spanning eastward along the WI/IL border. Given the lack
of strong deep-layer ascent, low-level lift in the form of warm-air
advection and the intensification of a low-level jet should sustain
storms into the evening hours. The ongoing storms are advancing
south-southeast along an MLCAPE gradient (ranging from 1000-3000
J/kg) amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, suggesting that updrafts
should remain robust and organized, with a damaging gust/large hail
threat. 

Despite the presence of widespread 300+ m2/s2 of effective SRH,
regional VWPs show modestly curved hodographs in the surface-3 km
layer, with velocity and shear magnitudes rapidly dropping off
around 700 mb. In addition, the 850-700 mb layer appears slightly
neutral in instability on the 00Z observed DVN sounding. As such,
the vertical shear/MLCINH introduced in this layer may be the main
limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat. Finally, a locally
greater damaging gust threat could materialize with any supercells
that congeal and grow upscale into an MCS. This especially may be
the case later this evening, when the LLJ veers to more
west-southwesterly, aligning more parallel with the line of storms.
As such, the severe threat may spread into southwestern Lower
Michigan, where a WW issuance may eventually be needed.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42209121 42469141 42819147 43209034 43358699 43348592
            42978538 42418517 42158538 41878595 41698652 41658745
            41848902 42079035 42209121