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Mesoscale Discussion 1365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...Montana...Northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

Valid 042345Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually move eastward
to a corridor from north-central Montana southeastward into
southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming. Large hail and wind damage
will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance may be needed
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
thunderstorms developing across western and central Montana. Other
more isolated storms are located near the Montana-Wyoming state line
south of Billings. These storms are expected to increase in coverage
over the next few hours, moving into parts of central and southeast
Montana.  The RAP shows MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range, along
with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be
favorable for a severe threat. Supercells will have potential for
isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. Organized multicells
will also be possible, with a potential for hail and strong wind
gusts.

..Broyles.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47671185 47441174 47221127 47131076 46890971 46540901
            45970826 45270761 44710707 44430652 44300607 44370573
            44510544 44840521 45270532 45710560 46440604 47250685
            47850798 48370967 48331131 48011183 47671185