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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER  MS VALLEY/SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES AND MT TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts are possible through
this evening centered on a portion of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and southwest Great Lakes regions. Scattered large hail and isolated
severe gusts are possible across parts of Montana into the western
Dakotas from late afternoon through tonight.

...20z Update...

The previous outlook remains on track. The only changes made with
the 20z update were to expand the 2 percent tornado area across
northeast ND into a small part of northwest MN given ongoing trends
and reports of a funnel near Grand Forks ND. Otherwise, ongoing
convection across southern WI/northern IL will pose a short term
severe threat for another couple of hours. Reference MCDs 1356 and
1357 for more information on near term severe potential. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of WI/MI later
this afternoon/evening and may impact similar areas of northern IL
into northern IN later this evening. Severe thunderstorms are also
still expected to develop across parts of MT into the western
Dakotas through this evening. For short term severe potential across
parts of central MT, reference MCD 1358.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022/

...Upper MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes...
A non-severe MCS is ongoing from western WI to the IA/IL border
area. While the northern portion will likely further decay, remnants
of the southern portion may persist across northern IL into IN this
afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and just-in-time moisture
return should limit more widespread intensification potential, but
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible into late afternoon as
the boundary layer further destabilizes. 

In the wake of the MCS and its attendant convectively induced
shortwave impulse, large-scale ascent should be suppressed to the
northwest of the low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is
expected to persist from the Mid-MO Valley to southern WI. While
there is low confidence in timing of redevelopment, areal extent
will likely be focused near the IA/MN/WI/IL border. The degree of
boundary-layer destabilization is questionable and its plausible
that redeveloping convection will remain slightly elevated atop it.
In addition, convective mode should tend to evolve into a
west/east-oriented cluster. But rather enlarged low-level hodograph
curvature owing to the southwesterly jet and modest surface
temperature-dew point spreads favor a conditional threat for a few
tornadoes. Consolidation of clusters into a forward-propagating MCS
is possible tonight across northern IL into northwest IN with
scattered damaging winds beco*ing the primary threat until
convection weakens overnight.

...MT to the Dakotas...
Despite minor weak mid-level height rises, presence of 50s surface
dew points banked up to the northern Rockies will foster scattered
thunderstorm development by late afternoon off the higher terrain in
MT. More isolated thunderstorms will likely initiate off the Black
Hills and are possible in north-central/northeast ND near a weak
surface low. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies to
westerlies will be maintained downstream of the weakening closed low
near northwest WA. This will foster 40-50 kt effective bulk shear
supporting potential for several supercells with mid-level updraft
rotation. Larger buoyancy should be confined to southern SD into
southeast ND, more muted values from 750-1500 J/kg are expected to
the northwest. This will likely be a limiting factor to greater
intensities with significant hail and wind potential expected to be
very isolated/conditional. Large hail should be the primary threat
with more isolated swaths of severe wind gusts focused on eastern MT
into southwest ND this evening/tonight.