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Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa and
north central/northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 122326Z - 130130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development
appears probable as early as 7-8 PM CDT, before evolving into an
organizing squall line with severe wind gusts beco*ing the most
prominent hazard later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Deepening high-based convective development is ongoing
within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor of strong boundary-layer
heating/ and deeper mixing to the west of the dryline.  As the
primary upstream short wave trough gradually pivots
north-northeastward across the northern high plains into early
evening, models suggest that the eastward surging cold front will
begin to overtake dryline by 00-01Z, leading to intensifying
thunderstorm development.  This appears likely to occur with
increasing inflow of moist/unstable air into the convective
updrafts, probably initially along a line (roughly) from the Sioux
City IA area southward through Lincoln NE, before advancing east of
the Missouri River and continuing to develop south-southwestward
into north central/northeastern Kansas.  

Shear is strong and supportive of an organizing squall line, with an
initial severe hail risk transitioning to primarily the risk for
severe wind gusts.  However, supercell structures will probably
evolve within the line, and could, perhaps, pose a risk of producing
a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41859647 41849508 40439575 38999754 39349831 40909686
            41859647