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Mesoscale Discussion 1353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 040535Z - 040630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A well-organized/bowing band of storms moving eastward
across central/southern South Dakota will require new WW issuance,
to cover ongoing/future severe potential.

DISCUSSION...A band of strong to severe storms is currently crossing
central/south-central South Dakota, where a moist/moderately
unstable environment persists.

Downstream from the convection, a zone of up to 2500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE is indicated by RAP-based objective analyses. 
This, co*bined with 40 to 50 kt southerly low-level jet -- and
associated warm advection/ascent -- suggests likelihood that storms
will remain well-organized over the next few hours.  Given potential
for damaging wind gusts, as well as possible instances of marginally
severe hail, a new WW will be coordinated shortly.

..Goss/Edwards.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43170098 44370045 45439823 45449694 42689699 42609835
            42789928 43170098