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Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana and western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

Valid 032333Z - 040100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms tracking across WW 426 may necessitate a
downstream watch in the next 1-2 hours, while additional severe
storms continue to develop.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of severe storms that
has emerged from the high terrain, which has produced a measured 78
mph gust in Garfield county, MT, along with persistent radar
signatures suggestive of large hail. This activity is expected to
continue moving east while maintaining a threat for damaging winds
and large hail. Surface dew point temperatures across far eastern MT
remain in the mid- to upper 60s F, and thus, these storms will
encounter a generally improving thermodynamic environment amid
broadly favorable effective shear (45-55 kt) to support/maintain
storm organization. With time, additional upscale growth is
possible, suggestive of a more widespread damaging wind threat. With
these factors in mind, a downstream watch will likely be considered
in the next hour or two across portions of western North Dakota.

Elsewhere across the watch area, severe storms currently in eastern
portions of WW 423 will likely propagate into southwestern portions
of WW 426. Additional convective development is evident in visible
satellite imagery across parts of northeast Wyoming that may spread
into southern parts of the watch area and pose a severe threat.
Convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Karstens.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48770745 49050495 48760217 46970090 45850194 45200456
            45340820 47280874 48460829 48770745