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Mesoscale Discussion 1347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Western and Central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

Valid 032259Z - 040100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for much of the
evening across parts of western and central South Dakota. Large hail
and wind damage will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Rapid
City shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms centered just
to the east of the Black Hills. The storms are located along the
southern edge of a pocket of strong instability, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough evident on
water vapor imagery, will move northeastward through northern
Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. This will provide the lift needed
to maintain convective development for much of the evening. In
addition, the Rapid City WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to
35 knot range, with veering winds with height in the lowest 2
kilometers. The deep-layer shear is probably a bit stronger eastward
across south-central South Dakota, along the southern edge of the
stronger mid-level flow. The moderate deep-layer shear co*bined with
mid-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also be possible within
the stronger downdrafts.

..Broyles.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43159917 43559889 44249936 44690030 44820128 44800202
            44600283 44490309 44210340 43890332 43580316 43340292
            43100265 42930185 42880032 42929961 43159917