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Mesoscale Discussion 1343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...NE Panhandle and adjacent portions of far southeast
WY/northeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 032022Z - 032215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms capable of locally severe wind gusts are
possible later this afternoon into the evening. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection is gradually increasing this
afternoon across extreme southeast WY, with increasing cumulus noted
across the western NE Panhandle. Despite generally limited low-level
moisture,  strong heating is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
across the region, with minimal MLCINH. As storm coverage increases
with time this afternoon, steep low-level lapse rates will support a
threat of severe wind gusts, though effective shear of 20-25 kt will
likely tend to limit storm organization. The marginal shear
environment makes the need for a watch uncertain, but severe
thunderstorm watch issuance will be considered if any semi-organized
storm clustering appears imminent.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40970426 42330438 42890387 42910278 42720230 42260207
            41720205 41260212 41060225 40830253 40770286 40830396
            40970426