SPC MD 1336
[html]MD 1336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern South Dakota into
southwestern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031130Z - 031330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated storms will occasionally reach or exceed severe
levels this morning, with local instances of hail around 1"
possible. Sporadic/isolated nature of the risk suggests that WW
issuance will not be necessary.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms developing within
a zone that extends from central South Dakota east of Rapid City,
eastward into far southwestern Minnesota. The storms are occurring
within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of a
west-to-east baroclinic zone, being supported by the remnant,
gradually veering 30 kt nocturnal low-level jet.
With fairly steep lapse rates aloft supporting roughly 1000 to 1500
J/kg elevated CAPE atop a stable, roughly 1km deep boundary layer, a
few vigorous updrafts have been observed. With around 25 kt
westerlies aloft providing modest shear through the cloud-bearing
layer, the CAPE/shear co*bination appears likely to maintain
isolated potential for marginally severe hail, over the next couple
of hours.
..Goss/Edwards.. 07/03/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44420247 44790176 44980043 44919956 45459754 44509549
44029583 44089709 43830130 44420247
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Source: SPC MD 1336 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1336.html)
Topic: SPC MD 1336 (Read 43 times)
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