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Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...Western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

Valid 022220Z - 030015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
hours across parts of eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Glasgow, Montana
shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over northeast
Montana. The cluster is located along an axis of instability
extending southeastward from northeast Montana into southwest North
Dakota. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE, along this corridor, in the
500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow has
0-6 km shear near 40 knots, with substantial speed shear in the
mid-levels. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km,
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage will
also be likely along the leading edge of the stronger downdrafts.
The severe threat should translate southeastward into western North
Dakota later this evening.

..Broyles.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48920431 48810482 48470523 47700551 47000554 46690545
            46420524 46320496 46210456 46150366 46290296 46450263
            47040236 47840253 48500272 48810313 48920431