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Mesoscale Discussion 1331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...North-central Idaho...Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022143Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely from late this
afternoon into early this evening across parts of the northern
Rockies and northern High Plains. A marginal wind-damage and hail
threat will be possible, but weather watch issuance appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
ridging pattern over the northern Rockies, with a subtle shortwave
trough evident in the flow over southern Montana. An axis of weak
instability extends east-to-west across central Montana, and then
west-southwestward into north-central Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms
are developing along and near the instability axis late this
afternoon. Near the instability axis, the RAP has 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates generally above
8.0 C/km. In spite of the weak instability, this environment should
be sufficient for hail and isolated damaging wind gusts with the
stronger cells. The threat is expected to gradually increase over
the next couple of hours, but should remain too marginal for weather
watch issuance.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   45881359 45521420 45141503 45081559 45101604 45361662
            45761676 46271660 46691615 47111502 47131498 47641274
            47951023 48010950 48040879 47870766 47740714 47540648
            47190596 46810579 46400607 46340665 46410759 46490889
            46401086 46241225 45881359