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Mesoscale Discussion 1326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana into parts of the western Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021920Z - 022115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
are expected in eastern Montana and parts of the western Dakotas
this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to deepen near Jordan, MT within a
weak surface trough. These trends, along with most recent guidance,
would suggest that storms may initiate in the next couple of hours.
The 18Z observed GGW sounding showed very steep lapse rates at low
and mid levels. With deep layer flow oriented across the surface
trough, supercells would be favored initially. Though moisture is
limited, -15 C temperatures at 500 mb and long hodographs would
promote large hail potential. Even though low-level flow is weak,
lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer should allow for stronger
downdrafts. A few strong to severe wind gusts are also possible.
Most guidance also suggests some upscale growth may occur by early
evening. It's not clear when or where this will occur, but
clustering would increase the damaging wind potential. A watch is
possible for parts of the region this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45230361 44770437 44890633 45110712 45480746 46960776
            48650696 49020575 48400437 47250317 46740283 45980293
            45230361