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Mesoscale Discussion 1323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Northern VA...Eastern WV
Panhandle...MD...DC...DE...NJ...Southeast PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 021716Z - 021915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected
this afternoon, with an attendant risk of locally damaging wind
gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway across much of the Mid
Atlantic early this afternoon, though cirrus emanating from
convection over WV is limiting insolation across parts of northern
VA. Convection is gradually increasing south of the cirrus shield
across western VA, while cumulus is gradually increasing across
southeast PA, to the north of the VA cirrus shield and south of
another cirrus shield across central/eastern PA. Continued
destabilization (MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg) will
support scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon,
though local minima in storm coverage will be possible where
persistent cirrus limits diurnal heating. 

This region is on the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow
associated with the deep mid/upper-level trough across eastern
Canada. Effective shear of 30-40 kt across southeast PA into
southern NJ will support the potential for a couple of organized
clusters and/or marginal supercells, capable of locally damaging
wind gusts and hail. Shear will be somewhat weaker into parts of
MD/VA/DE, but still sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable
of locally damaging wind gusts (especially where stronger heating
occurs), and perhaps some isolated hail.

Once a definitive uptick in storm coverage/intensity appears
imminent, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely across
portions of the MCD area.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38227926 39747747 40297633 40787487 40867426 39907456
            38807527 38237624 37817799 37847894 38227926