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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
through the evening over central and into eastern Montana.  Severe
gusts are the primary risk.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
An upper ridge should remain over the central High Plains northward
into eastern MT and the Dakotas on Sunday, while an upper low
persists along/near the coast of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of
weak mid-level disturbances will move through the base of the trough
and into the northern Rockies/High Plains regions during the period.
A broad area of surface low pressure will be centered over northern
WY with moist/easterly low-level flow north of the low over MT. 
Strong heating and orographic lift will aid in widely scattered
storms developing by mid afternoon over southwest MT.  Model
forecast soundings show an axis of moderate buoyancy extending from
eastern MT into central MT (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) with steep low- to
mid-level lapse rates.  Relatively long hodographs will favor an
initial supercell mode with the stronger storms initially before
upscale growth into a cluster or band evolves by the evening and
moves east.  Recent convection-allowing model guidance is in fairly
good agreement in portraying this signal.  The transition of the
severe risk from large hail and severe gusts to primarily a wind
risk is expected.  Localized gusts exceeding 75 mph are possible
during the evening during the peak intensity of the band/bow.  

Farther southeast, an area of showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing
Sunday morning over the eastern Dakotas into MN.  It is uncertain
whether this activity will linger into the afternoon posing an
isolated risk for severe or dissipate during the morning.  During
the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to
develop in the vicinity of a lee trough over the High Plains on the
west edge of a moisture reservoir located over the lower and mid MO
Valley.  Although mid- to high-level flow will remain relatively
tempered, ample directional shear will support wind profiles for
organized storms.  Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary
hazards with the stronger storms.  A couple of clusters may persist
well into the evening and perhaps overnight over parts of the
north-central Great Plains near the terminus of a LLJ.  

...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
A weak cold front should be present across southern VA at the start
of the period Sunday morning.  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop through Sunday afternoon as this boundary moves
slowly southward into NC/SC through the day.  This region will be on
the southern periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies
present over the Mid-Atlantic.  Although mid-level flow will likely
remain fairly weak over southern VA and the Carolinas, there should
still be sufficient deep-layer shear for modest convective
organization.  Moderate instability should also develop and promote
robust updrafts as diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
occurs.  Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) may be capable
of wind damage as they spread southward from southern VA into the
Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening.

..Smith.. 07/02/2022