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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts and isolated large
hail will be possible across northeast Wyoming, southwest South
Dakota and northwest Nebraska from late this afternoon into the
evening. Marginally severe thunderstorms are also possible across
parts of the central Plains, the Mid-Mississippi Valley and southern
Great Lakes. A few strong storms may also occur in the upper Ohio
Valley into southern New York.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the central and
northern Rockies today, with west-northwesterly mid-level flow
located across the central and northern Plains. At the surface,
moisture advection will strengthen today across the western part of
the central and northern Plains, as winds turn to the
south-southeast. By afternoon, surface dewpoints may reach the lower
to mid 50s F across parts of western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming and
southwestern South Dakota. The RAP has a pocket of moderate
instability developing in this area near the Black Hills by mid
afternoon, with MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the instability axis and
move east-southeastward across this corridor of instability from
late afternoon into the evening. In addition to the instability,
forecast soundings have lapse rates in the low to mid-levels peaking
near 9.0 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This
environment will likely be favorable for supercells with large hail
and wind damage.

Further south from the northwestern Texas Panhandle northward into
the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should develop in
the late afternoon. Although instability and shear are forecast to
remain weak, low to mid-level lapse rates will remain very steep. As
cells move east-southeastward out of the higher terrain early this
evening, hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western Great
Lakes today, as a cold front advances southeastward into eastern
Kansas, central Missouri, central Illinois and southern Lower
Michigan. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, with
surface dewpoints in the in the mid to upper 60s F. This should be
enough for a corridor of moderate instability to the south of the
front by afternoon. In addition to the instability, forecast
soundings from Springfield, Missouri northeastward to near Detroit,
Michigan have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. This, along
with steep low-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 8.0 C/km, could be enough
for an isolated severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be
possible with the stronger storms. Although a supercell can not be
ruled out in areas that destabilize sufficiently, most of the
convection is expected to remain multicellular due to the veered
winds at low levels.

...Upper Ohio Valley Into Southern New York...
West to west-northwest flow at mid-levels will be in place today
across much of the Northeast. At the surface, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture will be located from Kentucky
northeastward into southern New York. Moderate instability appears
likely to develop along this corridor by afternoon. In response,
thunderstorms should form in the higher terrain, and move
east-southeastward across the central Appalachians. A second round
of storms is forecast to approach the area from the west-northwest
this evening. The greatest co*bination of shear and instability is
forecast in the late afternoon and early evening, when low-level
lapse rates will be steepest. This could support a marginal
wind-damage and hail threat with the stronger multicells, mainly in
areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/01/2022