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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible today from parts of northern Iowa
northeastward into western upper Michigan. Additional storms
associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail may occur in
parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Upper Mississippi and Mid Missouri Valleys/Northern Great
Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern Plains
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will likely result in a
narrow corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface
temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases along and
ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected.
The greatest coverage of storms should occur from northern Wisconsin
into upper Michigan, where large-scale ascent will be plentiful. In
this area, MLCAPE is forecast could reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range ahead of the front. In addition, a 50 to 65 knot mid-level
speed max is forecast to create strong deep-layer shear, which
should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail.
However, this should be a mixed mode event, with multicell line
segments possible as well. Veered winds in the boundary layer, from
the southwest ahead of the front, will probably result in
outflow-dominated storms capable of wind damage. The threat should
be concentrated in a relatively narrow corridor, beco*ing maximized
in the late afternoon and early evening.

Further southwest into the mid Missouri Valley, large-scale ascent
is forecast to be considerably weaker. In spite of this, isolated
thunderstorms should develop along and ahead of the front during the
late afternoon as low-level convergence increases and as surface
temperatures peak. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear should be enough for a wind-damage and hail threat
in areas that destabilize the most.

...Central Plains...
Westerly mid-level flow will be in place today across the central
Plains, as an upper-level ridge moves across the central and
northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across Nebraska, as a surface low develops in western
Kansas. Surface dewpoints, ahead of the front and to the east of the
surface low, are expected to be mostly in the 50s and lower 60s F.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads could exceed 40 degrees F at
some locations by late afternoon, which would aid downdraft
accelerations with thunderstorms that form near and ahead of the
front. This will likely result in an isolated wind-damage threat
near and after peak heating. At this time, the threat is expected to
remain relatively isolated due to limited large-scale ascent and
weak deep-layer shear that is forecast.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/30/2022