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Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...northeast UT...far northwest CO...far southwest WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291841Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the
strongest storms/outflow.  The isolated coverage and low impact of
the risk will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery over the eastern Great
Basin/central Rockies shows a cluster of weakening convection moving
east over northern CO/southern WY and approaching the Laramie Range.
In wake of this activity, strong heating with mostly sunny skies is
resulting in temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s from
southwest WY into northeast UT and adjacent parts of far northwest
CO.  Isolated to widely scattered storms have developed in the past
hour over the Uinta mountains with additional storms forming farther
south over the Wasatch.  KMTX and KSLC VAD data indicate around
30-40kt west-southwesterly 500mb flow.  Given the steep lapse rate
profiles and the relatively dry sub-cloud layer implied by the large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads, strong downdrafts may be
slightly augmented by the moderate background tropospheric flow. 
Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the stronger
cores.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   41051082 41670890 41580812 41060793 40510808 40160857
            39411094 41051082