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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region
Thursday. Strong gusts will be the main hazard with this activity,
though isolated hail may also occur.

...MO Valley to the Great Lakes Vicinity...

A shortwave trough embedded within a broad, larger-scale trough over
central Canada into the Upper Midwest will shift northeast across
Lake Superior Thursday morning ahead of the main upper trough axis.
Strong mid/upper westerly flow will reside over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest associated with this feature. At the surface, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. A cold front will
extend from a low over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas and
western NE. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing across parts of ND/MN/WI/MI Thursday morning. This activity,
and residual cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating to some
degree. Additionally, warm midlevel temperatures will further result
in weak inhibition. Nevertheless, by afternoon, sufficient
destabilization should occur, supporting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development ahead of the east/southeast
advancing cold front. 

Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35-40 kt should foster
organized cells with an acco*panying threat for damaging gusts.
Somewhat straight and elongated hodographs typical of supercells
capable of hail are evident in forecast soundings, though confidence
in large hail is limited given warmer midlevel temperatures. Any
supercells that develop may be somewhat short-lived given at least
weak inhibition persisting ahead of the front and tendency toward
outflow dominant convection along the front. Expected limited storm
coverage and intensity will preclude an upgrade to Slight risk at
this time.

...Central Plains Vicinity...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the
central Rockies into NE/KS Thursday afternoon/evening. Northeasterly
post-frontal upslope low-level flow will maintain modest
boundary-layer moisture. Additionally, easterly low-level flow
beneath mid/upper level westerlies will result in effective shear
magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Weak destabilization by afternoon will
result in convection first over the higher terrain of CO/WY. As this
activity spreads eastward, some organized high-based cells should
persist into the Plains. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
with very steep low-level lapse rates should foster some threat for
strong gusts across eastern CO into parts of NE/KS into the evening
hours.

..Leitman.. 06/29/2022