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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will
be possible in parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and
evening. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible in parts of eastern North Dakota and far northwest
Minnesota, with wind gusts over 65 knots possible in parts of
central and eastern South Dakota.

...Northern Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern
Rockies today. Flow will beco*e west-southwesterly at mid-levels
across the northern Plains, in the wake of an upper-level ridge
moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a
cold front will advance eastward into the Dakotas this afternoon,
with a low forecast to develop in central South Dakota. A narrow
corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from
southeast Minnesota extending northwestward into eastern North
Dakota, where surface dewpoints should be in the mid 60s F. In
response, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon,
with MLCAPE reaching the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along parts of this
corridor. Although a capping inversion is forecast across much of
North Dakota this afternoon, surface heating and large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching shortwave trough may be enough to
allow a couple of surface-based discrete storms to develop. The
instability, co*bined with moderate deep-layer shear in the 40 to 50
knot range, should be enough for supercells with large hail. A
potential could exist for hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter.

Further south into parts of central and eastern South Dakota,
scattered thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon. This
convection is forecast to develop along the northeastern edge of a
plume of very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, exceeding 9.0
C/km. In response, the storms should have a substantial wind-damage
potential. Although supercells are not expected, several short
multicell line segments will be possible. As the downdrafts mature
in the late afternoon, very strong wind gusts in excess of 65 knots
will be possible.

The severe threat is expected to be maximized during the late
afternoon and early evening across the eastern Dakotas. As the
storms move eastward into western Minnesota during the evening, the
severe threat should beco*e more isolated. Warm-advection-related
storms could still pose an isolated severe threat, although the
potential should beco*e marginalized as instability drops.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/29/2022