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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS...EASTERN
NEBRASKA...MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the central Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region
Thursday, posing at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output is not much different from prior guidance, and
no more clear concerning the possible convective evolution and
associated risk for severe weather Thursday through Thursday night.

On the large-scale, it still appears that blocking will continue to
beco*e more prominent, with an increasingly amplified split flow
developing across the eastern Pacific into western North America
during this period.  Downstream, a deep mid-level low of Arctic
origins is forecast to continue slowing digging near the
southwestern shores of Hudson Bay, while a remnant perturbation of
northern mid-latitude Pacific origins accelerates eastward within
confluent flow to its south, near the central Canadian/U.S. border. 
This will contribute to suppression of mid-level heights with flow
trending broadly cyclonic across parts of the northern Great Plains
through the Great Lakes region.  Otherwise, there appears likely to
be little significant change to lower/mid tropospheric ridging
extending from the southwestern Atlantic through much of the
southern and central tier of the United States.

In response to these developments, a surface cyclone, emerging from
the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, may continue deepening
while migrating across northern Ontario into southern Hudson Bay,
before occluding across southern Hudson Bay by late Thursday night. 
A trailing cold front probably will advance south of the
international border through much of the upper Great Lakes region
and northern Great Plains.  Along and east of the pre-frontal
surface troughing, around the western periphery of low-level ridging
centered over the southwestern Atlantic, a seasonably moderate to
strong low-level jet may persist through much of the period across
parts of the southern and central Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region.  Although a gradual moistening,
aided by further evapotranspiration and advection of monsoonal
moisture northeast of the Four Corners region, may continue across
much of this corridor, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
content might remain confined to much of the Southeast, lower
Mississippi Valley and southeast Texas.

...Central Great Plains into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Although the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields may shift across
and northeast of the Great Lakes region early in the period, it
still appears that 30-50+ kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the
850-500 mb layer may persist across the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes region through much of the day.  Farther south, east of the
surface troughing into the Great Plains, the stronger flow (up to
around 30 kt at 850 mb) will be confined to lower levels, but this
will still provide conditional support for organized severe
thunderstorms, given sufficient destabilizaton and forcing for
ascent to initiate deep convection.

Despite the continued moistening south of the front and east of the
pre-frontal surface trough, model output continues to suggest that
modification of mid-level lapse rates, associated with the remnants
of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, may only allow for
seasonably modest mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. 
Within the stronger deep-layer mean flow, near and east-northeast of
the upper Great Lakes, this may be slowed or inhibited by the
remnants of weakening early period convection.

Still, there probably will be sufficient weakening of mid-level
inhibition to allow for at least widely scattered strong
thunderstorm development by late Thursday afternoon.  With the
environment at least conditionally supportive of isolated supercells
and a couple of small organizing clusters, some of these may pose
primarily a risk for severe wind and some hail, before diminishing
Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2022