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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of
the upper Midwest and from the northern Rockies into the Northern
High Plains this evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwest mid-level flow over
the upper Mississippi Valley, with a subtle shortwave trough located
in far southeast Minnesota. A plume of mid-level moisture is present
ahead of the trough from far northeast Iowa into the central Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is located from northern Iowa
northeastward into northeast Wisconsin. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are from the upper 40s into the 50s F. This is
contributing to a corridor of weak instability, with the RAP showing
MLCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. In addition, a 50 to 70 kt
mid-level jet, associated with the shortwave trough, is creating
moderate deep-layer shear across much of the upper Mississippi
Valley. This is evident on the WSR-88D VWP in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
which has a 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This co*bined with 0-3 km
lapse rates near 8.0 C/km and 25 to 30 knots of low-level flow
should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat for another hour
or two this evening. Hail could also acco*pany the stronger
updrafts.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough is currently moving through the Pacific
Northwest, with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow located across
the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. A shortwave trough is
evident at the top of an upper-level ridge on water vapor imagery,
with a dry slot located further to the southwest. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near and ahead of the trough across much
of western and central Montana. The latest RAP has an axis of
instability across the northern part of Montana, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition, lapse rates
are very steep, with the RAP suggesting 700-500 mb lapse rates are
generally between 8.0 and 9.5 C/km, mainly along and to the south of
the stronger instability. This is evident on the Glasgow, Montana
00Z sounding, which also has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots. This
environment should be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the
stronger cells this evening. The threat should transition slowly
eastward across central and eastern Montana over the next few hours.

..Broyles.. 06/29/2022