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Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 282020Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a threat for strong/locally
damaging gusts into this evening across parts of southwest into
central Montana.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain of
southwest MT this afternoon in an environment characterized by weak
instability but moderate to strong westerly flow. Effective shear
greater than 40 kt will result in organized cells. Strong heating
has allowed low-level lapse rates to beco*e quite steep, while
forecast soundings indicate high-based convection within a
deeply-mixed and dry sub-cloud layer. This will foster potential for
strong gusts with these cells. While moisture is rather modest, and
PW values generally less than 1 inch, increasing midlevel flow and
steep midlevel lapse rates could also support small hail in stronger
convection. However, the main severe hazard expected is damaging
gusts into this evening. Convective trends will be monitored and
severe thunderstorm watch may beco*e necessary in the next couple of
hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45851283 46541274 47001245 47191233 47921142 48291053
            48400992 48270909 47970870 47500855 46970865 45880895
            45460915 45080997 44891135 45181241 45851283